◈ X-Research
← Latest Updates
Key developments
+2
events added
55 total
+1
signal added
23 total
Events added this run
OpenAI-Cerebras Chip Deal ServiceNow Agentic ACV
Signals & Themes →
Post ideas
SaaS is being repriced, not dying THREAD
S
Seva Ustinov @sevaustinov 1/3

$2T in software market cap wiped out in 6 weeks. The narrative: AI is killing SaaS. The more useful read: SaaS is being repriced for an agentic world.

150/280 ✓
S
Seva Ustinov @sevaustinov 2/3

ServiceNow introduced outcome-based pricing — per agent-completed task, not per seat. Recovered ~50% of Q1 losses in one quarter. First mover in the transition is setting market prices.

185/280 ✓
S
Seva Ustinov @sevaustinov 3/3

PE firms are forming take-private bids at historic discounts. That's not a death bet — that's a restructuring bet. Patient capital thinks the market overcorrected. Watch what gets taken private in Q2.

200/280 ✓
Structural repricing vs permanent disruption
Hardware independence is the next AI moat
S
Seva Ustinov
@sevaustinov

OpenAI is acquiring Cerebras. When the most capable AI lab starts buying chip companies, the 'AI is a pure software play' thesis needs an update. Hardware independence is the next moat — and the race has started.

AI is not a pure software play 212/280 ✓
What the $2T SaaS wipeout actually signals
S
Seva Ustinov
@sevaustinov

~$2T in software market cap destroyed since January. Not because software is dead — because per-seat pricing doesn't survive agents doing the seat's work. This is structural repricing. Companies that reprice first rebuild the fastest.

Structural repricing, not obsolescence 234/280 ✓
Comment opportunities
J
Jason Lemkin @jasonlk · Apr 19

ServiceNow just reported what they're calling 'Agentic ACV' — per-task pricing that recovered almost half their Q1 losses. This is the first real proof that the seat → outcome pricing shift can work at scale.

178K views4.8K likes920 reposts
Reply · SaaS isn't dying — it's being repriced
S
Seva Ustinov
@sevaustinov

ServiceNow introduced 'Agentic ACV' — pricing per agent-completed task, not per seat. Recovered ~50% of Q1 losses. SaaS isn't dying. It's being repriced. First mover sets the market price.

188/280 ✓
J
Jason Lemkin @jasonlk · Apr 18

Software is now trading at a discount to the S&P 500. First time ever. $2T in market cap gone since January. I've never seen sentiment this negative on SaaS — and I've been tracking this for 15 years.

520K views11.2K likes2.4K reposts
Reply · Restructuring, not the end
S
Seva Ustinov
@sevaustinov

$2T in software market cap wiped out. Not because AI doesn't work — because per-seat pricing doesn't survive agents doing the work. The take-private bids are forming. This is restructuring, not the end.

202/280 ✓
B
Benedict Evans @benedictevans · Apr 19

Reports that OpenAI is acquiring Cerebras. If true, this is the clearest signal yet that the leading AI lab sees hardware independence as a strategic necessity. The 'AI is a software play' thesis has to be updated.

89K views2.8K likes640 reposts
Reply · Hardware independence as moat
S
Seva Ustinov
@sevaustinov

OpenAI is acquiring Cerebras. When the most valuable AI lab starts buying chip companies, the 'AI is a software play' thesis is due for an update. Hardware independence is the next moat.

186/280 ✓